Joliet Junior College Sociology Discussion

Please review the attached Census report indicating US population predictions over the next few decades. Describe at least three points that you found interesting and enlightening within the census information provided. How do you feel these facts, predictions, and trends will change American social and political landscapes? Will the clouding of terms such as majority and minority finally end historic controversy and group-to-group strains within our society, or will it create new ones? Or, will the melting pot finally melt into one? What are your thoughts and reasonings based on the data provided?

Census is attached below.

There is no word count, just as long as you answer the questions above (can’t be too short though)

Demographic Turning Points for the
United States: Population Projections
for 2020 to 2060
Population Estimates and Projections
Current Population Reports
By Jonathan Vespa, Lauren Medina, and
David M. Armstrong
P25-1144
Issued March 2018
Revised February 2020
INTRODUCTION
Figure 1.
The year 2030 marks a demographic
Projections of the Older Adult Population: 2020 to 2060
turning point for the United States.
By 2060, nearly one in four Americans is projected to
Beginning that year, all baby boomers
be an older adult.
will be older than 65. This will expand
Millions of people 65 years and older
Percent of population
the size of the older population so
that one in every five Americans
49.2
15
2016
is projected to be retirement age
(Figure 1). Later that decade, by 2034,
56.1
17
2020
we project that older adults will
outnumber children for the first
time in U.S. history. The year 2030
21
73.1
2030
marks another demographic first for
the United States. Beginning that
80.8
22
2040
year, because of population aging,
immigration is projected to overtake
85.7
22
2050
natural increase (the excess of births
over deaths) as the primary driver of
94.7
population growth for the country.
23
2060
As the population ages, the number
of deaths is projected to rise subSource: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.
stantially, which will slow the country’s natural growth. As a result, net
is still expected to grow by 79 million people by 2060,
international migration is projected to overtake natural
crossing the 400-million threshold in 2058. This conincrease, even as levels of migration are projected to
tinued growth sets the United States apart from other
remain relatively flat. These three demographic miledeveloped countries, whose populations are expected
stones are expected to make the 2030s a transformato barely increase or actually contract in coming
tive decade for the U.S. population.
decades. This report looks at these changes and sumBeyond 2030, the U.S. population is projected to grow
slowly, to age considerably, and to become more
racially and ethnically diverse. Despite slowing population growth, particularly after 2030, the U.S. population
marizes results from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2017
National Population Projections. It focuses on 2030 as
a demographic turning point for the United States, but
explores broader changes in the age, race, and ethnic
composition of the population from 2020 to 2060.
•
Beginning in 2030, net international migration is expected
to overtake natural increase
as the driver of population
growth in the United States
because of population aging.
That year, the United States
is projected to add 1 million
people by natural increase
(the number of births minus
deaths) but 1.1 million through
net international migration.
Because the number of deaths
is projected to rise substantially, in 2060 the U.S. population is projected to add about
500,000 people by natural
increase, whereas net international migration is expected
to add more than twice that
number—1.1 million—to the
population.
•
The population is projected
to grow more from international migration than natural
increase in coming decades
because of population aging.
As baby boomers age into
older adulthood, the number
of deaths is projected to rise
faster than the number of
births. As a result, the population will naturally grow very
slowly, leaving international
migration to overtake natural
increase as the leading cause
of population growth, even as
projected levels of migration
remain relatively flat.
2017 NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS
The results in this report are based on the 2017 National Population
Projections, which are the third set of projections based on the
2010 Census, and cover the period from 2017 to 2060. This series
updates the prior series released in 2014, which was the first to
incorporate separate assumptions about the fertility of native- and
foreign-born women living in the United States, since the latter tend
to have higher fertility rates.
The 2017 series extends that work to include separate assumptions
about the mortality of native- and foreign-born people. For the first
time, the national population projections account for the generally
lower mortality rates and higher life expectancy of the foreign-born,
which allows us to better project for the effects of international
migration on the population of the United States. The 2017 series
also includes projections of the racial and ethnic composition of children and older adults for the first time.
The 2017 National Population Projections include projections of
the resident population by several demographic traits, including
age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and nativity (whether people were
born in the United States or in another country). They are based on
the 2010 Census and official population estimates through 2016.
This series uses the cohort-component method, which projects the
three components of population change—fertility, mortality, and
international migration—separately for each birth cohort based on
historical trends. The base population is advanced each year using
projected survival rates and net international migration. New birth
cohorts are added to the population by applying the annual projected age-specific fertility rates to the female population.
For more information on the data and methodology, see the report
on the 2017 National Population Projections: Methodology and
Assumptions .
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE 2017
NATIONAL POPULATION
PROJECTIONS
Population growth:
•
•
2
The United States is projected
to grow by nearly 79 million
people in the next 4 decades,
from about 326 million to
404 million between 2017 and
2060. The population is projected to cross the 400-million
mark in 2058.
The population is expected
to grow by an average of
1.8 million people per year
between 2017 and 2060.
•
The rate of population growth
is slowing. Since 2010, the
population has grown by
about 2.3 million people
per year and it is projected
to continue growing by the
same annual rate until 2030.
However, that rate is expected
to fall to 1.8 million per year
between 2030 and 2040, and
continue falling to 1.5 million
per year between 2040 and
2060.
Aging:
•
America is graying. The
nation’s 65-and-older population is projected to nearly
double in size in coming
decades, from 49 million in
2016 to 95 million people in
2060. As a result, the share of
people aged 65 and older will
grow from about 15 percent in
U.S. Census Bureau
2016 to nearly a quarter of the
population in 2060.
•
The number of people 85
years and older is expected to
nearly double by 2035 (from
6.5 million to 11.8 million) and
nearly triple by 2060 (to 19
million people).
Race and ethnicity:
•
•
The non-Hispanic White
population is projected to
shrink over coming decades,
from 199 million in 2020 to
179 million people in 2060—
even as the U.S. population
continues to grow. Their
decline is driven by falling
birth rates and rising number
of deaths over time as the
non-Hispanic White population ages. In comparison, the
White population, regardless
of Hispanic origin, is projected
to grow from 253 million to 275
million over the same period.
The population of people
who are Two or More Races
is projected to be the fastestgrowing racial or ethnic group
over the next several decades,
followed by Asians and
Hispanics. The causes of their
growth are different, however.
For Hispanics and people who
are Two or More Races, high
growth rates are largely the
result of high rates of natural
increase, given the relatively
young age structure of these
populations. For Asians, the
driving force behind their
growth is high net international migration.
The foreign-born:
•
The nation’s foreign-born population is projected to rise from
44 million people in 2016 to 69
million in 2060, growing from
U.S. Census Bureau
HOW DO POPULATIONS GROW?
Components of Population Change
There are three demographic reasons why populations change:
people are born, they die, and they move into or out of a country.* Together, the number of births, deaths, and net international
migrants make up the total population change over a period of
time (Figure 5). Births add to the population while deaths take
away from it. The combination of these two components is called
natural increase (or sometimes natural decrease when deaths
exceed births, which can cause a population to shrink). Migration,
the third component, can either add to or subtract from a population depending if more people come into the country than leave it.
Between 2017 and 2060, the U.S. population is projected to grow
by 79.0 million people. Where do these people come from? Over
that period, we project a total of 181.6 million births, more than
four times that of net international migration. However, these
births are offset by a projected 149.1 million deaths, leaving a natural increase of 32.5 million people. Adding this natural increase to
the 46.4 million people from net international migration, we project a total growth of 79.0 million over the period from 2017
to 2060.
We project fertility and mortality rates separately for foreign-born
residents, who tend to have higher fertility rates and lower mortality rates than people born in the United States. Over the course
of their life, foreign-born women have historically had slightly
more children than native-born women (2.2 births compared with
1.9 births on average, respectively). Furthermore, birth rates are
highest among foreign-born women who are not U.S. citizens (78
births per 1,000 women),** followed by those who are naturalized
citizens (53 births per 1,000 women). Native women have lower
birth rates in comparison (51 births per 1,000 women). Between
2017 and 2060, we project that 80.7 percent of all births will be to
native mothers, while 19.3 percent of births will be to foreign-born
mothers. Additionally, we project that 84.8 percent of all deaths in
this period will be to native residents, while 15.2 percent of deaths
will be to foreign-born residents. The foreign-born typically have
lower mortality rates and longer life expectancy than the nativeborn, factors that affect the projected size and demographic
composition of the population.***
* Populations may change for other reasons besides demographic factors,
through territorial growth and annexing lands, for example.
** L. Monte and R. Ellis, “Fertility of Women in the United States: June 2012,”
Current Population Reports, P20-575, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC, 2014.
*** I. Akresh and R. Frank, “Health Selection Among New Immigrants,” American
Journal of Public Health, 98(11), 2008, pp. 2058–2064. See also, K. Markides and
K. Eschbach, “Hispanic Paradox in Adult Mortality in the United States,” in R. Rogers
and E. Crimmins, (eds), International Handbook of Adult Mortality, Springer, New
York, 2011, pp. 227–240; and E. Arias, K. Eschbach, W. Schauman, E. Backlund, and
P. Sorlie, “The Hispanic Mortality Advantage and Ethnic Misclassification on
U.S. Death Certificates,” American Journal of Public Health, 100(S1), 2010,
pp. S171–S177.
3
Table 1.
Population by Age Group: Projections 2020 to 2060
The population is projected to reach 404 million by 2060.
(In millions)
Total population . . . . . . .
Change from
2016 to 2060
Population
Characteristic
2016
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Number
Percent
323.1
332.6
355.1
373.5
388.9
404.5
81.4
25.2
Under 18 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
18 to 44 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
45 to 64 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
65 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . .
73.6
116.0
84.3
49.2
74.0
119.2
83.4
56.1
75.7
125.0
81.3
73.1
77.1
126.4
89.1
80.8
78.2
129.6
95.4
85.7
80.1
132.7
97.0
94.7
6.5
16.7
12.7
45.4
8.8
14.4
15.1
92.3
85 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . .
100 years and over . . . . . . . . . . .
6.4
0.1
6.7
0.1
9.1
0.1
14.4
0.2
18.6
0.4
19.0
0.6
12.6
0.5
198.1
618.3
Note: The official population estimates for the United States are shown for 2016; the projections use the Vintage 2016 population
estimate for July 1, 2016, as the base population for projecting from 2017 to 2060.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.
about 14 percent to 17 percent
of the population. The previous
historic high was in 1890, when
almost 15 percent of the population was foreign-born.
•
The native population is
expected to add an average of 1.3 million people per
year, compared with 579,000
per year for the foreign-born
population living in the United
States.
Children:
•
•
By 2020, fewer than onehalf of children in the United
States are projected to be
non-Hispanic White (49.8 percent of the projected 74 million children under age 18). In
comparison, about 72 percent
of children are projected to be
White, regardless of Hispanic
origin.
The share of children who are
Two or More Races is projected
to more than double in coming
decades, from 5.3 percent in
2016 to 11.3 percent in 2060.1
•
The racial and ethnic composition of younger cohorts
is expected to change more
quickly than for older cohorts.
In 2060, over one-third of
children are expected to be
non-Hispanic White compared with over one-half of
older adults.
A GRAYING NATION
By 2030, one in five Americans
will be 65 years and older .
America is graying. In 2016, some
49 million people were at least 65
years old, a number that will rise
as America’s baby boomers age
into older adulthood. The country
will reach that demographic milestone in 2030 when all boomers
will be over the age of 65. That
year, one in five Americans is projected to be an older adult (Figure
1). Baby boomers leave a significant imprint on the country’s
1
For more information on race and
ethnicity in the projections, see the text
box “Foreseeing the Future? Assumptions
About Population Projections.”
4
population. Between 2016 and
2060, the population under age
18 is projected to grow by only 6.5
million people, compared with a
growth of 45.4 million for the population 65 years and over (Table 1).
By 2034, the demographic scales
will tip further: older adults are
expected to outnumber children
for the first time in U.S. history.
The pattern should continue in
coming decades so that by 2060
there will be 95 million older
adults but 80 million children. The
country will be grayer than ever
before.
Aging boomers and rising life
expectancy will increase the older
population as well. The population
85 years and older is expected to
grow nearly 200 percent by 2060,
from 6 million to 19 million people
(Table 1). The country will also add
one-half million centenarians over
the same period. These changes
may be new for the United States,
but the country will join many others around the world with already
aging populations. By 2060, the
United States is projected to look
U.S. Census Bureau
Table 2.
Population by Age Groups 65 Years and Older and Sex Ratios: Projections 2020 to 2060
Older women are projected to continue outnumbering older men in coming decades.
(In thousands)
Characteristic
65 years and older
Women. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Men. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Sex ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
85 years and older
Women. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Men. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Sex ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
100 years and older
Women. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Men. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Sex ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2016
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
27,451
21,793
79
31,037
25,014
81
40,216
32,921
82
44,503
36,324
82
46,943
38,731
83
51,013
43,663
86
4,155
2,225
54
4,283
2,418
56
5,611
3,463
62
8,840
5,590
63
11,315
7,246
64
11,543
7,477
65
66
16
24
71
21
30
102
38
37
141
55
39
276
110
40
422
168
40
Note: Sex ratios represent the number of men for every 100 women in the population. A ratio of 100 means that there is an equal number of
men and women in a specific age group in the population. Ratios above 100 mean there are more men than women, while ratios below 100 mean
there are fewer men than women. The official population estimates for the United States are shown for 2016; the projections use the Vintage 2016
population estimate for July 1, 2016, as the base population for projecting from 2017 to 2060.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.
much like Japan does today, with
nearly a quarter of its population
aged 65 and over. 2 When compared globally, the United States
is projected to have a relatively
younger population in 2030
than Japan, Canada, and many
European countries, including
Germany, Italy, France, and Spain. 3
These countries will face the challenges of an aging population
earlier than the United States.
Older women will continue to
outnumber older men, but the
gap is narrowing.
Traditionally, there have been far
more women than men at older
ages, because women tend to live
2
W. He, D. Goodkind, and P. Kowal,
“An Aging World: 2015,” International
Population Reports, P95/16-1, U.S. Census
Bureau, Washington, DC, 2016.
3
J. Ortman, V. Velkoff, and H. Hogan,
“An Aging Nation: The Older Population
in the United States,” Current Population
Reports, P25-1140, U.S. Census Bureau,
Washington, DC, 2014. See also, W. He,
D. Goodkind, and P. Kowal, “An Aging
World: 2015,” International Population
Reports, P95/16-1, U.S. Census Bureau,
Washington, DC, 2016.
U.S. Census Bureau
longer.4 Sex ratios, which reflect
this gender imbalance, represent
the number of men for every 100
women in a specific age group.
A ratio of 100 indicates a perfect
balance between the sexes, with
the same number of men as there
are women. Currently, sex ratios
for the 65-plus population are 79,
while those for the 85-plus population are just 54. In other words,
these age groups are heavily
skewed toward women.
The latest projections calculate
that these imbalances will shrink
somewhat in coming decades,
largely because of rising life expectancy among men. The greatest
gains will be at the oldest ages. Sex
ratios for the 65-plus population
are projected to rise from 79 to
86 between now and 2060, while
ratios for the 85-plus population
will rise from 54 to 65 (Table 2).
The changing sex ratio imbalance
4
K. Kochanek, S. Murphy, J. Xu, and
B. Tejada-Vera, “Deaths: Final Data for
2014,” National Vital Statistics Reports,
65(4), National Center for Health Statistics,
Hyattsville, MD, 2016.
has implications for later-life support and caregiving since it affects
the availability of partners and the
likelihood of forming a new relationship among the widowed or
divorced, especially at older ages. 5
In coming decades, the United
States is expected to shift from
a youth-dependent population
toward an old aged-dependent
population .
Dependency ratios are another
way to look at the changing age
composition of the population.
They indicate the dependent
population’s potential burden on
the working-age population—in
other words, how many people
do the working-age support? Of
course, changes in the typical
working age and retirement age
can change the relevance of these
ratios. The youth dependency
ratio, defined here as the number
of children under 18 for every 100
adults aged 18 to 64, is projected
5 C Dollar, “Sex Ratio Effects on Marital
Formation and Dissolution, 1980–2000,”
Sociological Inquiry, 85(4), 2015,
pp. 556–575.
5
dependency ratios will affect
Social Security beneficiaries.6
Figure 2.
Dependency Ratios for the Population: 1940 to 2010,
Projected Ratios 2020 to 2060
GROWING RACIAL AND
ETHNIC PLURALISM
By 2020, there are projected to be two dependents for every
three working-age adults.
Youth
dependency
Old-age
dependency
1940
49
1950
11
51
1960
1970
61
1980
60
13
65
46
Non-Hispanic Whites are
projected to remain the single
largest race or ethnic group for
the next 40 years.
Total
dependency
64
82
17
17
78
19
65
1990
42
20
62
2000
41
20
61
21
59
2010
38
2020
37
2030
37
35
72
2040
36
37
73
2050
35
38
73
2060
35
64
28
41
76
Note: Dependency ratios are a measure of potential burden on the working-age population.
Youth dependency ratio = (population under 18 / population aged 18 to 64) * 100.
Old age dependency ratio = (population aged 65 and older / population aged 18 to 64) * 100.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections, 1940–2012 Population
Estimates.
to fall slightly in coming decades
(Figure 2). We project that by
2060 there will be just over one
child for every three working-age
adults. This is substantially lower
than the youth dependency ratio
in 1960, when the United States
had been experiencing nearly 15
years of a baby boom. That year,
there were about two children for
every three working-age adults.
The old-age dependency ratio,
in contrast, is expected to rise
considerably. In coming decades,
the United States is expected to
shift from a youth-dependent
population toward an old ageddependent one. Between 2010
and 2060, the old-age dependency ratio is projected to nearly
6
double, rising from 21 to 41 (Figure
2). In other words, there will be
41 people aged 65 and older
for every 100 work-age adults
between 18 and 64 years. Another
way of looking at this is, in 2020,
there are projected to be about
three-and-a-half working-age
adults for every older person eligible for Social Security. By 2060,
that number is expected to fall to
two-and-a-half working-age adults
for every older person eligible for
Social Security. Although total
dependency ratios are projected to be no higher than they
were in 1960, the rise of old-age
As the population ages and grows
more slowly in coming decades,
the United States is projected to
continue becoming a more racially
and ethnically pluralistic society.
This is not a new pattern. In 1900,
roughly one in eight people in the
United States were a race other
than White. That figure began to
rise in 1970.7 By 1990, nearly one
in five people were a race other
than White and over the next
decade, that proportion continued to rise to one in four people. 8
In coming decades, the racial
composition of the population is
projected to change even further,
so one in three Americans—32
percent of the population—is
projected to be a race other than
White by 2060 (Table 3).
The fastest-growing racial or
ethnic group in the United States
is people who are Two or More
Races, who are projected to grow
some 200 percent by 2060. The
next fastest is the Asian population, which is projected to double,
followed by Hispanics whose population will nearly double within
6
G. Reznik, D. Shoffner, and D. Weaver,
“Coping With the Demographic Challenge:
Fewer Children and Living Longer,”
Social Security Bulletin, 66(4), Social
Security Administration, Washington, DC,
2005/2006.
7
F. Hobbs and N. Stoops, “Demographic
Trends in the 20th Century,” Census 2000
Special Reports, CENSR-4, U.S. Census
Bureau, Washington, DC, 2002.
8
Ibid.
U.S. Census Bureau
Table 3.
Population by Race and Ethnicity: Projections 2030 to 2060
The non-Hispanic White population is projected to shrink by nearly 19 million people by 2060.
(In thousands)
Population
Characteristics
2016
2030
Change from
2016 to 2060
2060
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Total population. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One race
White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Non-Hispanic White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Black or African American. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
American Indian and Alaska Native. . . . . . .
Asian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific
Islander. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Two or More Races. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Hispanic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
323,128
100.0
355,101
100.0
404,483
100.0
81,355
25.2
248,503
197,970
43,001
4,055
18,319
76.9
61.3
13.3
1.3
5.7
263,453
197,992
49,009
4,663
24,394
74.2
55.8
13.8
1.3
6.9
275,014
179,162
60,690
5,583
36,815
68.0
44.3
15.0
1.4
9.1
26,511
–18,808
17,689
1,528
18,496
10.7
–9.5
41.1
37.7
101.0
771
8,480
57,470
0.2
2.6
17.8
913
12,669
74,807
0.3
3.6
21.1
1,125
25,255
111,216
0.3
6.2
27.5
354
16,775
53,746
45.9
197.8
93.5
Native-born population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One race
White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Non-Hispanic White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Black or African American. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
American Indian and Alaska Native. . . . . . .
Asian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific
Islander. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Two or More Races. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Hispanic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
279,283
100.0
301,318
100.0
335,150
100.0
55,867
20.0
222,942
189,896
38,345
3,465
6,377
79.8
68.0
13.7
1.2
2.3
232,638
188,169
43,013
4,036
9,373
77.2
62.5
14.3
1.3
3.1
236,955
165,964
51,195
4,975
17,289
70.7
49.5
15.3
1.5
5.2
14,013
–23,932
12,850
1,510
10,912
6.3
–12.6
33.5
43.6
171.1
576
7,578
37,819
0.2
2.7
13.5
686
11,572
51,466
0.2
3.8
17.1
866
23,869
83,971
0.3
7.1
25.1
290
16,291
46,152
50.3
215.0
122.0
43,845
100.0
53,783
100.0
69,333
100.0
25,488
58.1
25,560
8,073
4,656
590
11,942
58.3
18.4
10.6
1.3
27.2
30,815
9,823
5,996
627
15,021
57.3
18.3
11.1
1.2
27.9
38,059
13,198
9,494
609
19,525
54.9
19.0
13.7
0.9
28.2
12,499
5,125
4,838
19
7,583
48.9
63.5
103.9
3.2
63.5
195
902
19,652
0.4
2.1
44.8
227
1,097
23,341
0.4
2.0
43.4
259
1,386
27,246
0.4
2.0
39.3
64
484
7,594
32.8
53.7
38.6
Foreign-born population. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One race
White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Non-Hispanic White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Black or African American. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
American Indian and Alaska Native. . . . . . .
Asian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific
Islander. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Two or More Races. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Hispanic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Note: The official population estimates for the United States are shown for 2016; the projections use the Vintage 2016 population estimate for
July 1, 2016, as the base population for projecting from 2017 to 2060. Percentages will not add to 100 because Hispanics may be any race.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.
the next 4 decades.9 In contrast,
the only group projected to shrink
is the non-Hispanic White population. Between 2016 and 2060, the
non-Hispanic White population is
expected to contract by about 19
million people, from 198 million to
179 million, even as the total
U.S. population grows (Table 3).
The decline is driven largely by
For more information on race and
ethnicity in the projections, see the text box
“Foreseeing the Future: Assumptions About
Population Projections.”
9
U.S. Census Bureau
falling birth rates and a rising
number of deaths over time as the
non-Hispanic White population
ages. The crude birth rate for nonHispanic Whites is projected to be
nine per 1,000 people by 2030,
compared with a crude death rate
of almost 12 per 1,000 people.10 In
other words, more non-Hispanic
Whites are projected to die than
will be born. Nonetheless, nonHispanic Whites are projected
to remain the single largest race
group throughout the next 40
years. Beginning in 2045, however, they are no longer projected
to make up the majority of the
U.S. population.
10
“Growth Rates and Birth, Death,
and International Migration Rates:
Main Projections Series for the United
States, 2017–2060,” U.S. Census Bureau,
Washington, DC, 2018.
7
Table 4.
Percentage of Children by Race and Ethnicity: Projections 2020 to 2060
By 2060, the share of children who are Two or More Races is projected to more than double.
Characteristic
Total children under 18
(in thousands) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One race . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Non-Hispanic White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Black or African American. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
American Indian and Alaska Native. . . . . . .
Asian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific
Islander. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Two or More Races. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Hispanic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2016
2020
2030
2060
73,642
73,967
75,652
80,137
72.5
51.1
15.1
1.6
5.2
71.6
49.8
15.2
1.6
5.5
69.4
46.9
15.5
1.5
6.3
62.9
36.4
16.0
1.4
8.1
0.3
5.3
24.9
0.3
5.8
25.5
0.3
7.0
26.5
0.3
11.3
31.9
Note: The official population estimates for the United States are shown for 2016; the projections use the Vintage 2016 population estimate for
July 1, 2016, as the base population for projecting from 2017 to 2060. Percentages will not add to 100 because Hispanics may be any race.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.
a race other than non-Hispanic
White by 2060 (Figure 3).
Figure 3.
Racial and Ethnic Composition of Children Under Age 18
The share of children who are non-Hispanic White is
projected to fall from one-half to about one-third by 2060.
(In percent)
Non-Hispanic White
Hispanic
Black
Asian
All others*
51.1
36.4
31.9
24.9
16.0
15.1
7.1
8.1
5.2
2016
13.0
2060
* The other race group includes children who are American Indian and Alaska Native,
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, and Two or More Races.
Note: Hispanic is considered an ethnicity, not a race. The percentages do not add to
100 because Hispanics may be any race.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.
By 2020, fewer than one-half
of children—49.8 percent—are
projected to be non-Hispanic
White.
The changing racial makeup of
the United States is most visible among children. By 2020, a
8
majority of children are projected
to be a race other than nonHispanic White (Table 4). That
figure is expected to rise in coming decades, so about two in
three children are projected to be
Three groups drive this change.
The group of children who are
Two or More Races is projected
to more than double between
2016 and 2060, from 5 percent
to 11 percent of all children under
18 years. Over the same period,
the share of Hispanic children
is projected to rise from onequarter to nearly one-third, while
the share of Asian children will
rise significantly as well (Table 4).
These changes mirror a broader
transition in the United States to a
more pluralistic population. What
sets younger cohorts apart is that
their racial and ethnic makeup
has been changing more quickly
than for older cohorts. By 2060,
over one-half of older adults are
projected to be non-Hispanic
White, compared with one-third
of children.11 Continuing a trend
that has existed for many years,
younger generations are projected to become more racially
and ethnically diverse than older
generations.
11
“Race and Hispanic Origin by Selected
Age Groups: Main Projections Series for
the United States, 2017–2060,” U.S. Census
Bureau, Washington, DC, 2018.
U.S. Census Bureau
Figure 4.
Foreign-Born People Living in the United States: 1850 to 2010, Projected 2020 to 2060
By 2028, the foreign-born share of the U.S. population is projected to be higher than at
any time since 1850.
Projection
16.8
Historic high
17.1
16.1
14.8
14.4
14.7
13.6
13.2
15.1
69.3
14.0
13.2
13.3
65.3
12.9
11.6
60.2
11.1
53.8
9.7
46.7
8.8
Percent foreign born
7.9
6.9
40.0
Historic low
31.1
6.2
5.4
4.7
19.8
13.5 13.9 14.2
2.2
4.1
1850
5.6 6.7
1880
9.2 10.3
1900
1920
11.6 10.3
9.7
1940
1960
14.1
9.6
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
Number of foreign-born
(in millions)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1850–2000 Decennial Censuses, American Community Survey 2010, 2017 National Population Projections
for 2020–2060.
A NATION OF IMMIGRANTS
About 44 million people in the
United States—around one in
seven—were born in another country. However, most residents have
immigration in their family history.
Some 36 million Americans can
look to their parents to find it,
while 235 million—or about 75
percent of Americans—can look
back to their grandparents’ generation or earlier.12 Although it is
easy to think of the foreign-born
as a single population, they are
made up of people from different
12
E. Trevelyan, C. Gambino, T. Gryn,
L. Larsen, Y. Acosta, E. Grieco, D. Harris,
and N. Walters, “Characteristics of the
U.S. Population by Generational Status:
2013,” Current Population Survey Reports,
P23-214, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington,
DC, 2016.
U.S. Census Bureau
countries and backgrounds. Of
the 44 million foreign-born living
in the United States in 2016, just
under one-half were Hispanic
(Table 3), consistent with
estimates from the American
Community Survey which show
that the majority of foreign
born in the United States came
from Latin America and the
Caribbean.13 About one-quarter
of the foreign-born population
in 2016 was Asian, and a little
under one-fifth was non-Hispanic
White (Table 3). These numbers
13
E. Grieco, Y. Acosta, G. de la Cruz,
C. Gambino, T. Gryn, L. Larsen, E. Trevelyan,
and N. Walters, “The Foreign-Born
Population in the United States: 2010,”
American Community Survey Reports,
ACS-19, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington,
DC, 2012.
reflect the current total or stock
of foreign-born living in the
United States. The largest sending regions of migrants have been
changing recently, however. Of
those who arrived before 2000,
most came from Latin American
countries, followed by Asian countries. Since 2010, that trend has
reversed with Asia replacing Latin
America as the largest sending
region of migrants to the United
States.14
14
“Selected Characteristics of the
Foreign-Born Population by Period of Entry
to the United States,” 2012–2016 American
Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Table
S0502, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington,
DC, 2017.
9
Figure 5.
Projected Population Change and Births, Deaths, and Net International Migration: 2017 to 2060
By 2060, the U.S. population is projected to grow by 79 million people.
(In millions)
181.6
35.1 to foreign-born
mothers
(19.3% of births)
79.0
146.5 to
native-born
mothers
(80.7% of births)
149.1
22.6 foreign-born
(15.2% of deaths)
126.5 native-born
(84.8% of deaths)
46.4
Total population change,
2017 to 2060
Births
Deaths
Net international
migration
Natural Increase
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.
By 2028, the foreign-born share
of the U.S. population is projected
to be higher than any time since
1850.
driver of population growth in the
United States—another demographic milestone for the country
(Figure 6).
If past trends continue, the
number of immigrants living in
the United States is projected to
grow by 25 million people, rising from 44 million in 2016 to
a projected 69 million by 2060
(Figure 4). Not until 2028 will the
foreign-born living in the United
States reach a historic high, however. That year, 14.9 percent of
the U.S. population is projected to
have been born in another country, higher than any time since
1850.15 Just 2 years later, by 2030,
net international migration is
expected to become the primary
Although the size of the foreignborn population is projected to
rise, the next few decades will
actually look like an earlier period
in U.S. history. From the late 19th
to early 20th century, the country
experienced high levels of immigration, a period when roughly
one in seven people in the United
States were born in another
country (Figure 4). After the First
World War, the proportion of
foreign-born began declining until
it reached a historic low in 1970,
when just one in 20 residents were
15
“Projected Size of the Native- and
Foreign-Born Population: Main Projections
Series for the United Sates, 2017–2060,”
U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC, 2018.
10
foreign-born.16 Since 1970, the size
of the foreign-born population
has been rising and, if past trends
continue, would total more than
69 million by 2060, or about one
in six people living in the United
States.
16
The U-shaped pattern in the foreignborn population (Figure 4) is related to the
Immigration Act of 1924 and the Immigration
and Nationality Act of 1965. The 1924 act
coincided with a decades-long decline in the
number of immigrants to the United States,
evident in the figure by the falling percentage of foreign-born in the U.S. population.
This pattern reversed after the 1965 act,
which aimed to abolish immigration quotas
based on national origin and favored instead
family reunification and, to some extent,
specialized skills. Following the 1965 act,
immigration began rising and the origin of
foreign-born in the United States changed.
See D. Massey and K. Pren, “Unintended
Consequences of U.S. Immigration Policy:
Explaining the Post-1965 Surge from Latin
America,” Population and Development
Review, 38(1), 2012, pp. 1–29. See also,
A. Timmer and J. Williamson, “Immigration
Policy Prior to the 1930s: Labor Markets,
Policy Interactions, and Globalization
Backlash,” Population and Development
Review, 24(4), 1998, pp. 739–771.
U.S. Census Bureau
An increase in the foreign-born
would alter the age structure of
the U.S. population, as well as
its racial and ethnic composition
(discussed earlier in the report).
In 2016, about 78 percent of the
foreign-born population was of
working age, between 18 and
64 years, compared with just 59
percent of the native-born. Both
of these figures are projected to
fall within the next decade, but
the gap will remain almost as
large (falling to 72 percent and 56
percent, respectively, by 2030).
This gap is important because the
foreign-born are more likely to be
in the labor force. What is more,
young first generation immigrants
are more likely to have full-time
jobs than their native peers
(although that does not necessarily mean those jobs are better
paying).17 Nonetheless, the nativeborn population is younger overall
and, in coming decades, a higher
percentage of the foreign-born
are projected to be 65 and over.18
Thus a change in the size of the
17
E. Trevelyan, C. Gambino, T. Gryn,
L. Larsen, Y. Acosta, E. Grieco, D. Harris,
and N. Walters, “Characteristics of the
U.S. Population by Generational Status:
2013,” Current Population Survey Reports,
P23-214, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington,
DC, 2016. See also, “Foreign-Born Workers:
Labor Force Characteristics—2016,” Bureau
of Labor Statistics News Release, USDL-170618, Department of Labor, Washington, DC,
2016; and E. Grieco, Y. Acosta, G. de la Cruz,
C. Gambino, T. Gryn, L. Larsen, E. Trevelyan,
and N. Walters, “The Foreign-Born
Population in the United States: 2010,”
American Community Survey Reports,
ACS-19, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington,
DC, 2012; and “Selected Characteristics of
the Native and Foreign-Born Populations,”
2016 American Community Survey 1-Year
Estimates, Table S0501, U.S. Census Bureau,
Washington, DC, 2016.
18
“Projected Native Population by
Selected Ages: Main Projections Series for
the United States, 2017–2060,” U.S. Census
Bureau, Washington, DC, 2018. See also,
“Projected Foreign-Born Population by
Selected Ages: Main Projections Series for
the United States, 2017–2060,” U.S. Census
Bureau, Washington, DC, 2018.
U.S. Census Bureau
Figure 6.
Projected Population Change From Natural Increase
and Net International Migration: 2017 to 2060
Starting in 2030, net international migration is projected
to become the largest driver of population growth in the
United States.
(In millions)
Natural increase*
1.4
2017
2060
1.0
1.0
2030
2050
1.0
1.4
2020
2040
Net international immigration
0.6
0.4
0.5
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
* Natural increase is the number of people born into the population after subtracting
the number of people who have died (i.e., births minus deaths).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.
working-age population could
have important consequences for
the population overall.
PROJECTED TRENDS IN
POPULATION SIZE AND
GROWTH
Of course, these projections will
hold true only if all other past
trends continue and all assumptions about births, deaths, and
international migration hold true.
Migration trends are especially
sensitive to policy and economic
circumstances in both the United
States and migrants’ country of
origin. The projections in this
report are based on historical
trends in international migration
and do not attempt to account for
future policy or economic cycles.
Growing, but more slowly.
Over the next four decades the
U.S. population is projected to
grow by 79 million people, from
about 326 million in 2017 to 404
million people by 2060 (Figure
5). By 2058, the U.S. population is
expected to cross the 400-million
threshold. Although the total population is expected to gradually
increase over time, the pace of
growth is slowing. Since 2010, the
population has grown by an average of 2.3 million people per year
and it is projected to continue
11
FORESEEING THE FUTURE? ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT
POPULATION PROJECTIONS
Projections can only illustrate potential trajectories of population change. The projections in this report will hold true only if
all assumptions about future fertility, mortality, and international
migration hold true as well. Because these assumptions of demographic change are based on historical trends in births, deaths, and
international migration, the projections do not predict any potential impact of future policy decisions or exceptional historic events,
such as natural disasters. This report discusses what the population
may look like in coming decades. Such statements are always conditional on the underlying assumptions about the components of
population change. The projections are accurate insofar as future
trends in fertility, mortality, and migration mirror historical trends
in these components of population change.
Where this report discusses race, it generally refers to single race
groups (i.e., people who reported being only White or only Asian).
Two or More Races refers to people who reported at least two
race groups (e.g., White and Asian), while the Hispanic population includes all Hispanics, regardless of their race. Projecting
race and ethnicity is challenging. The number of births, deaths,
and net international migrants affects the size of each race and
ethnic group, but so do changes in self-identification and selfreporting. For example, there was considerable change in the race
response of individuals who reported American Indian or Alaska
Native between the 2000 Census and the 2010 Census. Moreover,
the increase in the number of people who reported being both
White and Black between the censuses was largely the result of
people who reported both races in 2010, when they had previously
reported only one race in 2000.* The projections do not account
for social changes in self-identification or self-reporting of race and
ethnicity.
* For more information, see H. Hogan, J. Ortman, and S. Colby, “Projecting
Diversity: The Methods, Results, Assumptions, and Limitations of the U.S. Census
Bureau’s Population Projections,” West Virginia Law Review, 117, 2015, pp. 1047–1079.
See also, K. Humes and H. Hogan, “Do Current Race and Ethnicity Concepts Reflect
a Changing America?” In R. Bangs and L. Davis (eds), Race and Social Problems,
Springer, New York, 2015, pp. 15–38.
growing by the same amount
until 2030, when the population
is expected to reach about 355
million people (Table 1). However,
that rate is projected to fall to an
average of 1.8 million per year in
the following decade, between
2030 and 2040. In addition, it is
projected to continue falling to
an annual rate of about 1.5 million
12
people between 2040 and 2060.19
The slowing growth in the
U.S. population comes from
the confluence of three factors: an aging population, falling
19
In terms of annual percent change,
these numbers correspond to population growth of about 0.7 percent per year
until 2030, 0.5 percent per year between
2030 and 2040, and 0.4 percent per year
between 2040 and 2060.
fertility rates (fewer people will
be born), and lower rates of net
international migration in coming
decades.
A projected annual growth of
about 0.7 percent during the
2020s may seem small. Yet this
change actually sets the United
States apart from other developed countries, some of which are
experiencing little to no population growth. For example, Japan’s
population is actually declining
while those of Russia and other
Eastern European countries are
projected to contract within the
decade. 20 These countries face
a combination of lower fertility
rates, older age structures, and
lower international migration than
the United States. The projected
0.7 percent annual growth for the
United States looks more robust in
comparison.
Starting in 2030, net international
migration is projected to become
the largest driver of population
growth.
The population is projected to
continue growing over the next
40 years, but the force behind
that growth is expected to
change. Between 2017 and 2060,
the population is projected to
grow by 79 million people, more
than half of which is expected to
come from international migration. Yet the level of net international migration is projected to
remain relatively flat in coming
decades (Figure 6), while rates
of migration are projected to fall
slightly. And, until 2030, natural
increase will be the leading driver
of population growth. Beginning
in 2030, however, the United
States is projected to experience
20
U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 International
Data Base.
U.S. Census Bureau
a significant demographic transition: net international migration
is expected to overtake natural
increase as the primary driver of
population growth (Figure 6). That
trend is projected to continue so
that in 2060, the U.S. population
will grow by 1.6 million people,
two-thirds of which is projected to
come from net international migration (1.1 million) and one-third from
natural increase (about 500,000).
Why is international migration
projected to become the leading cause of population growth
in coming decades? The reason
is population aging. The number
of births is projected to rise only
slightly in coming decades. But
the number of deaths is projected
to rise much faster, especially
between 2020 and 2050, as baby
boomers age into later life and
the size of the older population
expands. As the number of deaths
climbs toward the number of
births each year, the population
will naturally grow very slowly. In
2020, for example, we are projecting 4.1 million births and 2.8 million
deaths (a natural increase of about
1.4 million people). In 2060, we are
projecting 4.4 million births but
3.9 million deaths—in other words,
only a few hundred-thousand
more births than in 2020, but 1.1
million more deaths. 21 Even though
levels of international migration
are projected to remain relatively
flat, this sharp rise in deaths is projected to allow international migration to overtake natural increase
as the leading cause of population
growth beginning in 2030.
“Projected Births, Deaths, and Net
International Migration: Main Projections
Series for the United States, 2017-2060,
”U.S. Census Bureau, Washington,DC, 2018.
21
U.S. Census Bureau
SUMMARY
The year 2030 marks a demographic turning point for the
United States. Beginning that year
all baby boomers will be older
than 65 and, within the decade,
older adults (65 years and older)
are projected to outnumber children (under 18 years) for the first
time in U.S. history. While the population ages, the United States will
experience another demographic
milestone. By 2030, immigration is
projected to become the primary
driver of population growth: more
people are projected to be added
to the population through net
international migration than from
natural increase. The projected
shift to net international immigration as the primary driver of population growth is the result of falling
fertility rates and the rising number of deaths in an aging population, not because of a projected
increase in international migration.
The rapid aging of the population
between 2020 and 2040 will have
a substantial demographic impact
on the country.
Despite slowing growth, the
U.S. population is still projected
to grow. This continued growth
sets the United States apart from
some of the other developed
countries whose populations
are expected to barely increase
or contract over the next few
decades. By the next census,
332.6 million people are projected
to be living in the United States.
By 2058, the U.S. population is
expected to cross the 400-million
threshold, with a projected population of 401.3 million people. By
that time the United States will
be an older, more racially and
ethnically pluralistic society. NonHispanic Whites are projected to
remain the single largest race or
ethnic group throughout the next
40 years. Beginning in 2045, they
are no longer projected to make
up the majority of the U.S. population. If the assumptions underlying these projections hold, then
the U.S. population is projected to
experience several demographic
milestones by 2060, as the population grows slowly, ages considerably, and becomes more racially
and ethnically pluralistic.
DATA SOURCES AND
METHODOLOGY
The projections in this report are
the third series of national population projections based on the 2010
Census. They project the total
U.S. population as of July 1 for the
years 2017 to 2060, using official
population estimates for 2016 as
the base population. When both
population estimates and projections are available, estimates are
the preferred data. The universe
is the resident population of the
United States (50 states and the
District of Columbia). The 2017
National Population Projections
include projections of the resident
population by several demographic traits, including age, sex,
race, Hispanic origin, and nativity.
The projections were produced
using a cohort-component method
beginning with an estimated base
population for July 1, 2016. In this
method, the components of population change are projected separately for each birth cohort (persons born in a given year) based
on past trends. For each year from
2017 to 2060, the population is
advanced 1 year of age using the
projected age-specific survival
rates and levels of net international
migration for that year. A new birth
13
cohort is added to the population by applying the projected
age-specific fertility rates to the
female population. Births, adjusted
for infant mortality and net international migration, form the new
population under 1 year of age. In
its simplest form, the cohort component method is expressed as:
P t =P t-1+ Bt-1,t– Dt-1,t+ Mt-1,t
where:
P t = population at time t,
P t-1 = population at time t-1,
Bt-1,t = births in the interval from
time t-1 to time t,
Dt-1,t = deaths in the interval from
time t-1 to time t, and
Mt-1,t = net migration in the interval
from time t-1 to time t.
Projections produced through the
cohort-component method are
driven by assumptions regarding each of the components of
change. In order to project a
14
population forward in this manner,
separate projections of fertility,
mortality, and net international
migration are required to serve as
inputs into the cohort-component
model, as is an original base population to project forward.
Historical mortality trends were
calculated using the National
Center for Health Statistics’
data on deaths and the Census
Bureau’s population estimates
for 1989 to 2015. Fertility trends
were calculated using the National
Center for Health Statistics’ birth
data and the Census Bureau’s
estimates of the female population. The time series included data
from 1990 to 2016. Trends in net
international migration were primarily based on decennial census
and American Community Survey
estimates on foreign-born immigration for the period from 1980
to 2016.
For more information on the data
and methodology, see the report
on 2017 National Population
Projections: Methodology and
Assumptions .
DATA ACCURACY
The accuracy of the projections
depend on the accuracy and validity of several data sources. First,
the projections are based on the
2010 Census, which may contain
nonsampling error because of
errors in enumeration, such as
undercounting or overcounting
different demographic groups.
Nonsampling error may be a byproduct of how a questionnaire is
designed, how respondents interpret questions, how able or willing
respondents are to provide correct
answers, and how accurately the
answers are coded and classified.
Technical documentation for the
2010 Census is available at
. Second, the
U.S. Census Bureau
projections use administrative
records from the National Center
for Health Statistics on births and
deaths. Reporting error on the
birth or death certificates would
affect the population projections because this data is used to
calculate fertility rates and mortality rates for the population. Third,
the projections use the American
Community Survey to assign nativity to the base population and calculate immigration and emigration
rates of the foreign-born. Statistics
that come from surveys are subject to nonsampling error, noted
above, as well as sampling error.
The latter occurs because surveys
measure the characteristics of a
sample of people, instead of those
of the entire population (as from a
census). Sample-based estimates
vary depending on the particular
sample that is selected from the
population, but all survey-based
estimates attempt to approximate the actual figures from the
U.S. Census Bureau
population. Measures of the size
of sampling error reflect variation
in the estimates over all possible
samples that could have been
selected from the population using
the same sampling, data collection,
and processing methods. Technical
documentation for the American
Community Survey is available at
.
Last, the projections did not
attempt to predict future changes
in policy or other factors, such
as natural disasters or changing
economic cycles, which might
influence the population components and their magnitude of
change. The projections are accurate only insofar as the assumptions about fertility, mortality, and
net international migration hold
true, assumptions that are based
on historical trends. If the future
trends or levels in fertility, mortality, or international migration
differ radically from the historical
patterns, then the population projections will be less accurate.
SUGGESTED CITATION
Vespa, Jonathan, Lauren Medina,
and David M. Armstrong,
“Demographic Turning Points for
the United States: Population
Projections for 2020 to 2060,”
Current Population Reports,
P25-1144, U.S. Census Bureau,
Washington, DC, 2020.
CONTACTS
Jonathan Vespa
301-763-7283
Lauren Medina
301-763-5062
David M. Armstrong
301-763-5671
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