RU Statistics Article Analysis Worksheet

1STAT 130 – Formal Writing Assignment #1
Name:
Class Time:
Article Analysis #1 (Chapters 1 – 8)
For this assignment, you are going to read and answer questions about the 2021 Virginia
Gubernatorial Election between McAuliffe and Younkin. The questions below will reference the
Real Clear Politics Poll After reviewing the article and looking at all of the graphs and tables,
answer the following questions. These may require that you review terminology and other
information from any part of STAT 130, chapters 1 – 8. The associated assignment below will
be graded for accuracy. The article can be found on D2L in the Formal Writing Folder.
1. Multiple Choice. RCP (Real Clear Politics—the top line in yellow) combines
multiple polls together to form one large sample and then uses this large sample to
develop sample statistics. What is this type of analysis called?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Sample
Poll
Meta-analysis
Blinding
2. Multiple Choice. What is the sample proportion for McAuliffe for the RCP (Real
Clear Politics) Average?
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
46.8%
45.4%
2.5%
3.4%
46%
3. Multiple Choice. What is the sample proportion for Youngkin for the RCP Average?
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
48.8%
48.5%
2.5%
3.4%
46%
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STAT 130 – Formal Writing Assignment #1
4. Multiple Choice. What is the margin of error for the RCP Average?
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
8.9%
3.4%
8.0%
4.2%
There is not one reported
5. How many people were included in the overall RCP combined poll?
6. Using the Fox News Poll information only, calculate the confidence intervals for the
true proportion of expected voters for both McAuliffe and Youngkin.
McAuliffe:
to
Youngkin:
to
7. Multiple Choice. Using the intervals you calculated in number 6 above, can you say
with assurance that McAuliffe would win based on these confidence intervals?
A. Yes
B. No
8. Using the Christopher Newport University Poll from the week of 8/15 – 8/23,
calculate the confidence intervals for the true proportion of expected voters for both
McAuliffe and Youngkin.
McAuliffe:
to
Youngkin:
to
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STAT 130 – Formal Writing Assignment #1
9. Multiple Choice. Using the intervals you calculated in number 8 above, can you say
with assurance that McAuliffe would win based on these confidence intervals?
C. Yes
D. No
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Article Analysis #1
STAT 130
Many companies and universities conduct regularly polling prior to major elections. In 2021, the Virginia Governor Race is particularly important nationally
for predicting how the following congressional elections will go in the near future. The problem with individual polls is that they take small samples of
likely voters (LV on the chart) which causes a larger margin of error. Real Clear Politics (RCP) combines many polls to reduce the overall margin of error in
the projected confidence interval of the proportion of voters likely to vote for both McAulliffe and Younkin. (Any third-party candidate is omitted as s/he is
not a possible winner.) The following information is all taken from Real Clear Politics on 10/13/2021. Answer the following questions about the Real Clear
Politics Article published on 10/13/2021.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/va/virginia_governor_youngkin_vs_mcauliffe-7373.html#polls
Additional questions will refer to the Christopher Newport University polls specifically. The reference article is linked here. (You should not need to read it,
but can if you wish to.)
https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2021-10-08.html
https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2021-08-26.html
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